关键词: 应急决策, 不确定环境, 语义信息, 群体意见冲突, 关联权重, 前景理论, 基于前景理论的逼近理想解

Abstract: n terms of uncertain Emergency Group Decision-Making(EGDM),a novel EGDM model considering the conflicts of Decision Makers(DMs)' opinions and the correlation of evaluation indexes was proposed in the semantic environment,which overcame the disadvantages of existing studies from the following four aspects: the Context-Free Grammar Judgement (CFGJ) and Possibility Distribution-Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Term Set (PD-HFLTS) were utilized to characterize the uncertain information;a detecting and adjusting algorithm of group opinions' conflict based on PD-HFLTS was put forward to reduce the conflict level among DMs;a novel method for determination of indexes' correlation weight was proposed based on DEMATEL and ANP;a novel Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method based on prospect theory was put forward to rank the alternatives.The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model was illustrated by the example of a high-speed railway station copying with a large number of stranded passengers.

Key words: emergency decision making, uncertain environment, semantic information, group opinion conflict, indexes' correlation weight, prospect theory, technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution