关键词: 新产品开发, 方案选择, 前景理论, 偏好顺序结构评估法

Abstract: To propose a novel method for new product projects evaluation based on hybrid representations of the classical fuzzy number,interval-value fuzzy number and hesitant fuzzy element,the evaluation index system for new product projects was constructed.The weight vector of attributes was obtained by using the prospect theory with considering the risk attitudes and preferences on attributes of the decision maker.Furthermore,a highly robust approach of Preference Ranking Organization Methods for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE) was utilized to obtain the final ranking of all new product projects.A numerical example on the selection of new smart-phone projects was provided to show the feasibility,validity and rationality of the proposed method.

Key words: new product development, alternative selection, prospect theory, performance ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation