关键词: 前景理论, 易逝品, 预售, 需求扩散效应, 策略型消费者

Abstract: There are some perishable products with short life style cycle and high influence in the market.The supply of these products can't meet all demand of customers.Some people are willing to pay higher price for these products in the advance selling phrase to obtain them.Aiming at the premium advance selling of perishable products,a model of retailer's advance selling decision-making under the condition of demand uncertainty was established based on prospect theory of behavioral economics.By considering the strategic buying behavior of consumer during advance selling process,the effect of product demand diffusion,and residual value and out-of-stock losses,the value function,subjective probability and decision weighting function were constructed based on newsvendor model for decision model of advance selling.The model was analyzed from all of influence factors in the numerical example.The differences between expected utility theory and prospect theory were analyzed in the numerical example,which provided some suggestion for retailers.

Key words: prospect theory, perishable products, advance selling, demand diffusion effect, strategic consumers