关键词: 产品开发, 中止决策, 累积前景理论, 优化模型, 决策矩阵

Abstract: It was significant for optimizing the limited resources and promoting success rate of product development by reviewing product development projects systematically and periodically.According to the periodical and risky features of product development projects,a termination decision approach based on cumulative prospect theory was proposed.The decision matrix was constructed with the evaluation index of sample projects and projects to be identified.The positive and negative ideal solutions of the decision matrix were utilized as reference schemes to calculate the positive and negative prospect value matrix.An optimization model with the objective of maximum deviation of comprehension prospect value in different  projects was constructed.By solving the model,the optimum weight vector was obtained.With the optimum weight vector,each project's comprehension prospect value was calculated and the unknown type of projects was determined according to their corresponding intervals of comprehension prospect value.The feasibility and effectiveness of proposed model were testified by an instance project from a manufacturing enterprise.

Key words: product development, termination decision, cumulative prospect theory, optimization model, decision matrix