关键词: 铁路应急预案, 直觉梯形模糊数, 前景理论, 模糊测度, Choquet积分, 改进逼近理想解法

Abstract: Aiming at the problem that experts behavior preferences and indexes correlation were seldom considered in the existing methods of railway emergency evaluation plans,an approach for railway emergency evaluation method based on prospect theory and fuzzy measures theory was put forward.The prospect value which reflected individual preference was obtained from the evaluation value which was represented by intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy number through prospect theory.The prospect value of correlative indexes was aggregated through λ fuzzy measure and Choquet integral,and a maximum entropy optimization model was established to compute the optimal fuzzy measures owing to the unknown fuzzy measures of each index.By taking the wide range of information into consideration such as the prior information of each expert,the amount of information contained in evaluation value and the contribution of individual decision to group decision-making comprehensively,the experts weight was obtained.A ranking of alternatives was obtained through improved TOPSIS based on projection distance.An example was provided to illustrate the validity and rationality of the proposed method.

Key words: railway emergency plans, intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy number, prospect theory, fuzzy measurement, Choquet integral, improved TOPSIS