关键词: 产品开发, 方案选择, 方案偏好, 可能度矩阵

Abstract: To sufficiently illustrate the influence of decision maker's preferences on selecting new product development programs,an approach for selecting new product development programs was introduced based on decision maker's program preferences.To reflect the fuzzy and uncertain characteristics of information in the process of selecting new product programs,the values of evaluation index were provided as a type of interval numbers to reduce the loss of decision information.A preference decision matrix of new product evaluation team was standardized by using a vector normalized approach.A decision maker gave his subjective preferences to the programs and a correction coefficient was introduced to modify the preferences.An optimal weight vector of index was derived from a model which could minimize the total deviation between the preferences of evaluation team and the ones of decision maker by a deviation degree concept of interval number.The weight vector of preference and the standardized decision matrix were combined to compute the comprehensive values of alternative programs.A possibility degree matrix and its priority vectors were calculated to order the programs.The application example and a comparative case analysis had showed the efficiency and feasibility of the proposed approach.

Key words: product development, alternative selection, program preference, possibility degree matrix