关键词: 在线直销, 随机需求, 随机产出, 过度自信, 期权契约, 供应链协调

Abstract: Aiming at the problem that many small and medium manufacturing enterprises developed the online direct marketing under the background of supply structural reforms and “Internet +”,the coordination mechanism with an option contract of supply chain was constructed by considering the supplier-manufacturer supply chain with random demands and manufacturer's overconfident expectation.The wholesale price mechanism was used as a benchmark to develop the wholesale price and option contract models respectively,the optimal order quantities and input quantities under different behaviors were compared,the relations between optimal decisions and various factors were analyzed,and the conditions that the option price and execution price could achieve supply chain coordination and Pareto improvement were attained.The main results were as follows: for the overall of supply chain and the supplier,the option price and execution price were not always as low as possible or as high as possible under an option contract;for the manufacturer,the initial order quantity was lower,the total order quantity and the expected profits were higher by comparing to the wholesale price contract under certain conditions with an option contract;the expected profits under overconfidence was higher than the one with rationality;for the supplier,it should consider whether the partner was overconfident when it made decision about production,so as to avoid the loss of over input or under input.

Key words: online direct marketing, stochastic demands, random yields, overconfidence, option contract, supply chain coordination