关键词: 制造商预售, 按订单装配, 供应不确定, 消费者价值, 供应链

Abstract: To research the influence of manufacturer advance selling on supply chain members' decisions,aiming at an assemble-to-order product supply chain,the components' random yielding of upstream multi-suppliers and downstream uncertain consumer value were considered.The influence of manufacturer and retailer's ordering decision and expected profits in three different models of disperse decision,centralized decision and manufacturer's online advance selling strategy was compared.Through deducing and simulating for advance selling model,the result showed that the advance selling was more optimal than centralized and dispersed decision,but was harmful to retailer's benefit.The retailer's reaction to advance selling was counterintuitive: the more discount of advance selling,the more quantity of advance selling,the more discount to maximize expected profit of retailer would be take after advance selling;the less homogeneous consumers,the more motive retailer had to rise price.

Key words: manufacturer advance selling, assemble-to-order, supply uncertainty, consumer value, supply chains