Abstract: To research the risk evolution mechanism of multi-level supplier network,the supplier network was transformed into a directed weighted network.On this basis,the node vulnerability was taken as an important factor to evaluate itself cure rate and the edge weights among nodes were also taken as an important factor to influence the propagation rate,so as to improve the traditional epidemic model to make it more suitable for the network of suppliers.The risk transmission rate and itself cure rate of enterprises were analyzed by simulation,and the key points of risk management would be find out to adjust the network structure,so that the damage of the network risk could be reduced effectively.

Key words: supplier networks, directed weighted networks, vulnerability assessment, risk propagation, supply chains

摘要： 为了研究多级供应商网络的风险演化机制,将供应商网络转化为有向加权网络,在此基础上将网络节点脆弱性作为评价其自身治愈能力的重要因子,并将相连节点之间的边权值作为影响传播率的主要因素,以此改进传统的传染病模型,使其更加适合于供应商网络。通过案例发现,企业自身治愈率比传播率对风险传播的影响更大,应加强企业自身的抵御风险能力,降低其脆弱性。

关键词: 供应商网络, 有向加权网络, 脆弱性评价, 风险传播, 供应链