Abstract: Uncertain lead time is a difficult problem in supply chain operation practice.To clarify the influence mechanism of random lead time and find the suitable inventory policy to dampen negative effect of random lead time,a complex nonlinear supply chain dynamic model was built,which had considered order crossover and unpermitted sales return conditions and introduced random demand and lead time.All the conditions made the model more actual but complex.To obtain the optimal inventory policy,three indicators including order variance,service level and inventory cost became performance targets.Through the simulation experiments,the effect of random lead time on performance indicators were explored under different inventory policies.Some optimal inventory policies better than traditional policy were found,which could decrease the negative effect of random lead time.The research also found that random lead time had no effect on the variation trend of performance indicators in inventory policies region,but only had effect on the value.

Key words: random lead time, inventory policy, supply chains, performance indicator, non-negative constraint

摘要： 在供应链运作实践中,提前期不确定是一个常见的管理难题。为明晰随机提前期对供应链系统的影响机理,并提出抑制随机提前期对供应链系统性能负面影响的策略,建立了一个复杂非线性供应链系统动力学模型,该模型考虑订单交叉、不允许退货等前提条件,并引入随机需求和随机提前期。这些前提条件使模型更符合实际,同时也大大增加了模型的复杂度。将订货量波动、服务水平和库存成本作为评价供应链性能的指标,通过仿真实验,研究不同库存策略下,随机提前期对这些性能的影响。研究发现,存在比传统策略更优的库存策略,这些策略能在一定程度上抑制随机提前期的负面影响;随机提前期波动只对各项指标的大小变化有影响,并不改变各项性能指标在整个库存控制策略域内的变化趋势。

关键词: 随机提前期, 库存策略, 供应链, 性能指标, 非负约束