关键词: 顾客感知要素, 改进的灰色关联分析, 单变量灰色模型, GM(1, N, x(0)), 加权Markov模型, 需求预测

Abstract: To improve the accuracy of demand forecasting,a multi-variable gray demand forecasting model by addressing customer perception factors was constructed.The modified gray relational analysis was adopted to analyze the importance of customer perception factors such as quality,performance and service.Meanwhile,the initial predicted value of each factor obtained by combining GM(1,1,x(0)) and weighted Markov model to be the input of GM (1,N,x(0)) which was employed to forecast the future demand trends.The example of demand forecasting for engine products demonstrated the applicability and validity of the proposed approach.

Key words: customer perception factors, modifiedgray relational analysis method, gray model, GM(1,N,x(0)), weighted Markov prediction model, demand forecasting