Abstract: Since the backorder risk might spread to the downstream enterprises along the supply chain,a risk evaluation method for backorder risk by considering the risk propagation was proposed.In this method,the manufacturer delayed in delivery was treated as the top event in fault tree according to FTA idea.The fault tree included middle events of multiple suppliers such as procurement,production and transportation and basic events of manufacturer backorder was constructed by considering the supply and demand between enterprises and the risk propagation.The probabilities of basic events in the fault tree were determined through the analysis of related historical events.The backorder probability of manufacturer was calculated according to FTA idea.On this basis,the backorder risk of manufacturer was evaluated by considering the loss caused by manufacturer backorder and the compensation of manufacturer obtained from the suppliers.A practical example was used to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.

Key words: risk evaluation, supply chains, risk propagation, backorder, fault tree analysis

摘要： 针对交货延迟风险可能沿供应链向下游企业传导的情形,提出一种考虑风险传导情形的交货延迟风险评估方法。依据故障树分析思想,将制造商交货延迟事件视为故障树分析的顶上事件,综合考虑供应链中各级供应商的供求关系和风险传导的情形,构建了由多级供应商的采购、生产、运输延迟等中间事件和基本事件构成的制造商交货延迟故障树;通过分析相关历史事件确定了故障树中各基本事件发生的概率,并依据故障树分析原理计算制造商交货延迟事件发生的概率;综合考虑制造商交货延迟事件发生造成的损失及制造商可能得到的来自供应商的补偿,评估了制造商的交货延迟风险。通过算例说明了所提方法的可行性与有效性。

关键词: 风险评估, 供应链, 风险传导, 交货延迟, 故障树分析