Abstract: To explore the impact of uncertain technical efficiency on the decision-making of green supply chain members,a supply chain model consisting of technical service providers,manufacturers and retailers was constructed.The results showed that:①If the manufacturer did not have the conditions for independent innovation,the manufacturer would only purchase technology when the R&D efficiency was high;if the manufacturer had the conditions for independent innovation,when the average level of green technology and R&D efficiency were low or moderate,the manufacturer would choose to purchase technology,otherwise it would choose independent innovation;moreover,the purchase technology strategy could better cope with the impact of uncertain technical efficiency under certain conditions.②Under the independent innovation strategy,the improvement of the average level of green technology would increase the green level of manufacturers and have a positive effect on manufacturers and retailers.The increase of green technology volatility and risk aversion would have a negative impact on manufacturers and retailers.③Under the purchase technology strategy,the degree of risk aversion,the average level and volatility of green technology had a positive impact on technology service providers and retailers,but might have a negative impact on manufacturers.

Key words: green supply chain, uncertain technology efficiency, technological innovation, risk aversion

摘要： 为了探讨技术效率不确定对绿色供应链成员决策的影响,构建一个由技术服务商、制造商以及零售商组成的供应链模型。研究结果表明:①如果制造商不具备自主创新条件,在研发效率较高时,制造商才会购买技术;如果制造商具备自主创新条件,在绿色技术平均水平和研发效率都较低或者适中时,制造商将选择购买技术,否则将选择自主创新;而且,购买技术策略在一定条件下能更好地应对技术效率不确定的影响。②在自主创新策略下,绿色技术平均水平的提高,将使制造商绿色水平增加,对制造商和零售商有积极作用。绿色技术波动程度与风险规避程度的提高,则会对制造商和零售商造成不利影响。③在购买技术策略下,风险规避程度、绿色技术平均水平与波动程度对技术服务商与零售商有正向影响,但是对制造商可能产生负面影响。

关键词: 绿色供应链, 技术效率不确定, 技术创新, 风险规避