Abstract: In order to explore the impact of uncertain technical efficiency on the decision-making of green supply chain members,a supply chain model consisting of technical service providers,manufacturers and retailers is constructed.The results show that: (1) If the manufacturer does not have the conditions for independent innovation,the manufacturer will only purchase technology when the R&D efficiency is high ;if the manufacturer has the conditions for independent innovation,when the average level of green technology and R&D efficiency are low or moderate,the manufacturer will choose to purchase technology,otherwise it will choose independent innovation ;moreover,the purchase technology strategy can better cope with the impact of uncertain technical efficiency under certain conditions.(2) Under the independent innovation strategy,the improvement of the average level of green technology will increase the green level of manufacturers and have a positive effect on manufacturers and retailers.The increase of green technology volatility and risk aversion will have a negative impact on manufacturers and retailers.(3) Under the purchase technology strategy,the degree of risk aversion,the average level and volatility of green technology have a positive impact on technology service providers and retailers,but may have a negative impact on manufacturers.

Key words: green supply chain, uncertain technology efficiency, technological innovation, risk aversion

摘要： 为了探讨技术效率不确定对绿色供应链成员决策的影响,构建一个由技术服务商、制造商以及零售商组成的供应链模型。研究结果表明：①如果制造商不具备自主创新条件,在研发效率较高时,制造商才会购买技术;如果制造商具备自主创新条件,在绿色技术平均水平和研发效率都较低或者适中时,制造商将选择购买技术,否则将选择自主创新;而且,购买技术策略在一定条件下能更好地应对技术效率不确定的影响。②在自主创新策略下,绿色技术平均水平的提高,将使制造商绿色水平增加,对制造商和零售商有积极作用。绿色技术波动程度与风险规避程度的提高,则会对制造商和零售商造成不利影响。③在购买技术策略下,风险规避程度、绿色技术平均水平与波动程度对技术服务商与零售商有正向影响,但是对制造商可能产生负面影响。

关键词: 绿色供应链, 技术效率不确定, 技术创新, 风险规避