Abstract: To study the influence of manufacturers overconfidence characteristics and power structure differences on dynamic decisions of dual-channel green supply chain,a differential game model under three situations of manufacturer dominated,retailer dominated and equal power.Then,the impact of the manufacturer's overconfidence and power structures on the supply chain decision-making and members profits was analyzed.The research showed that the product green level,prices,manufacturers profit and total supply chain's profit would increase with the escalation of the manufacturer's overconfidence in unfavorable market conditions,while the retailer's profit decreased.Conversely,in favorable market conditions,the opposite trend was observed;manufacturer in a dominant position was motivated to intensify its green R&D efforts.Supply chain members' profits were maximized when holding a dominant position;supply chains profit reached the peak when power was balanced between the parties and was lowest when retailer dominated.Moreover,the impact of manufacturer's overconfidence on its profits and the total supply chain's profit was contingent upon the power dynamics among channel members.

Key words: overconfidence, power structure, dual-channel green supply chain, differential game

摘要： 为探究制造商过度自信行为特征和权力结构差异对双渠道绿色供应链成员动态决策的影响,构建制造商主导、零售商主导和双方权力对等3种情况下的微分博弈模型,求解并对比分析各情形下的供应链成员均衡决策和利润。研究表明,当市场环境较差时,产品绿色度、销售价格、制造商利润及供应链总利润会随制造商过度自信程度的提高而增加,零售商利润则随之下降,而当市场环境较好时,上述情况均相反;制造商占主导地位会促使自身做出更大的绿色研发努力;供应链成员利润均在自身占主导地位时最高,而供应链总利润在双方权力对等时最高,在零售商主导时最低;制造商的过度自信对自身利润和供应链总利润的影响程度与渠道成员间的权力大小有关。

关键词: 过度自信, 权力结构, 双渠道绿色供应链, 微分博弈