Abstract: Considering the manufacturer's characteristics of overconfidence,a dynamic strategic model for a dual-channel green supply chain under three power structures was constructed in this paper.Then,the differential game was used to analyze the impact of the manufacturer's overconfidence and power structures on the supply chain decision-making and members' profits.The research shows that the product green level,prices,manufacturer's profit,and total supply chain's profit increase with the escalation of the manufacturer's overconfidence in unfavorable market conditions,while the retailer's profit decreases.Conversely,in favorable market conditions,the opposite trend is observed;manufacturer in a dominant position is motivated to intensify his green R&D efforts.Supply chain members' profits are maximized when holding a dominant position;supply chain's profit reaches the peak when power is balanced between the parties and is lowest when retailer dominates.Moreover,the impact of manufacturer's overconfidence on his profits and the total supply chain's profit is contingent upon the power dynamics among channel members.

Key words: overconfidence, power structure, dual-channel green supply chain, differential game

摘要： 考虑制造商具有过度自信的行为特征,构建三种权力结构下的双渠道绿色供应链微分博弈模型,探讨制造商的过度自信及权力结构差异对供应链成员决策和利润的影响。研究表明：当市场环境较差时,产品绿色度、销售价格、制造商利润及供应链总利润会随制造商过度自信程度的提高而增加,零售商利润则随之下降;而当市场环境较好时,上述情况均相反;制造商占主导地位会促使自身做出更大的绿色研发努力;供应链成员利润均在自身占主导地位时最高,而供应链总利润在双方权力对等时最高,在零售商主导时最低;制造商的过度自信对自身利润和供应链总利润的影响程度与渠道成员间的权力大小有关。

关键词: 过度自信, 权力结构, 双渠道绿色供应链, 微分博弈