Abstract: Aiming at the problem that many small and medium manufacturing enterprises developed the online direct marketing under the background of supply structural reforms and “Internet +”,the coordination mechanism with an option contract of supply chain was constructed by considering the supplier-manufacturer supply chain with random demands and manufacturer's overconfident expectation.The wholesale price mechanism was used as a benchmark to develop the wholesale price and option contract models respectively,the optimal order quantities and input quantities under different behaviors were compared,the relations between optimal decisions and various factors were analyzed,and the conditions that the option price and execution price could achieve supply chain coordination and Pareto improvement were attained.The main results were as follows: for the overall of supply chain and the supplier,the option price and execution price were not always as low as possible or as high as possible under an option contract;for the manufacturer,the initial order quantity was lower,the total order quantity and the expected profits were higher by comparing to the wholesale price contract under certain conditions with an option contract;the expected profits under overconfidence was higher than the one with rationality;for the supplier,it should consider whether the partner was overconfident when it made decision about production,so as to avoid the loss of over input or under input.

Key words: online direct marketing, stochastic demands, random yields, overconfidence, option contract, supply chain coordination

摘要： 针对“互联网+”背景下众多中小制造企业实施的在线直销模式,在由生产商与供应商构成的二级供应链下,考虑需求及产出的随机性以及各企业存在的过度自信心理预期,研究供应链期权契约协调机制。以批发价契约作为基准,分别构建了批发价契约及期权契约下各企业的利润函数模型,分析了不同心理预期下最优订购量及投产量决策的差异性,提出各企业最优决策与各类因子的变化关系,得到了期权契约实现供应链协调及利润Pareto改进的价格条件。研究发现,对于供应链整体或供应商而言,期权价格和期权执行价格并非越低越好或越高越好;一定条件下,对于生产商而言,相比于批发价契约,期权契约下的初始订购量更低,总订购量及期望利润更高;期权契约下,相比于完全理性,过度自信时的初始订购量更低,期望利润更高;对于供应商而言,企业做出投产决策时应充分考虑上下游企业是否存在过度自信的心理预期,从而避免投产过量或生产不足。

关键词: 在线直销, 随机需求, 随机产出, 过度自信, 期权契约, 供应链协调