Abstract: To restrain the influence of lead times and uncertain demand on the utilization rate of turnover box,a robust switching strategy of turnover box multi-model systems was investigated.Based on the forward flow and the reverse flow of turnover box,the turnover box supply chain including a manufacturer,operators and customers was established.Then,the basic models of dynamic evolution for the turnover box supply chain with production lead time,ordering lead time and recycling lead time were constructed under uncertain demand.Based on the design of manufacturer's production switching strategy and operator's operation switching strategy,the turnover box supply chain was represented as a multi-model system.Furthermore,the basic models,switching strategies and multi-model system of the above-mentioned turnover box supply chain were extended to the turnover box supply chain network,and then a robust control strategy for Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy control system describing the multi-model systems of the turnover box supply chain and the turnover box supply chain network was proposed.The robust switching strategy composed of the switching strategies and the robust control strategy of the turnover box multi-model systems could reduce the impact of multiple lead times and uncertain demand on the turnover box supply chain and network,which realized the stable operation of the supply chain and network at low cost.Finally,the simulation results of an automobile parts turnover box supply chain and an automobile parts turnover box supply chain network demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed robust switching strategy of the turnover box multi-model systems.

Key words: turnover box, multi-model system, robust switching, supply chains, lead time

摘要： 为了抑制提前期和不确定需求对周转箱利用率的影响,研究一种周转箱多模型系统的鲁棒切换策略。首先,基于周转箱的正向流动和逆向流动,设计一种包含制造商、运营商和客户的周转箱供应链系统;然后,构建不确定需求下含生产提前期、订购提前期和还箱提前期的周转箱供应链动态演变基本模型;再次,在设计制造商生产切换策略和运营商运营切换策略的基础上,将周转箱供应链系统表示为多模型系统。将上述周转箱供应链的基本模型、切换策略和多模型系统扩展为周转箱供应链网络后,对可描述周转箱多模型系统的Takagi-Sugeno模糊控制系统提出一种鲁棒控制策略。由周转箱的切换策略和鲁棒控制策略组成的周转箱多模型系统的鲁棒切换策略可以降低多种提前期和不确定需求对周转箱供应链和网络的影响,实现周转箱供应链和网络的低成本稳定运作。最后,通过某汽车零部件周转箱供应链和网络的仿真实验验证了所提周转箱多模型系统鲁棒切换策略的有效性。

关键词: 周转箱, 多模型系统, 鲁棒切换, 供应链, 提前期