关键词: 机械设备, 性能退化, 寿命预测, 指数函数, 参数经验贝叶斯

Abstract: To solve the failure prediction problem in small sample machincal equipment,the issue of degradation-based failure time estimation for mechanical device was proposed.Since the degradation process was greatly affected by working conditions,the concept of local degradation rule was proposed and represented by the exponential function,and all the potential degradation patterns could be obtained consequently.The fitted exponential curves were used to produce samples of local failure time,and the local failure time observations were obtained at each time.During the lifetime of mechanical device,the extreme degradation patterns were rare while the moderate ones were frequent,thus the local failure times were assumed to be independently from a normal prior distribution.Parametric empirical Bayes technique was adopted to estimate both the prior and posterior distribution.The posterior distribution of last observation was treated as the global failure time estimation.The proposed approach was validated in a simulation case and a precision case of numerical control machine tool to show the better effectiveness.

Key words: mechanical device, performance degradation, failure time estimation, exponential function, parametric empirical Bayes