关键词: 决策支持模型, 匹配决策, 决策时间窗, 资源分布, 决策时间风险, 风险计算

Abstract: To obtain the optimal decision of individual decision maker for service matching decision problem with decision time window constraints,the individual decision making problem based on time window matching of resource distribution was defined.Considering the influence of time window on decision maker's decision psychology,the comprehensive decision revenue of the problem was defined as two parts:expected revenue and revenue risk.Based on the nature of the change of business distribution in time window,an expected revenue model considering time effect was constructed.Based on the three attitudes of decision makers to time risk in time window,the urgency coefficient was introduced to divide it into three corresponding stages.By calculating the difference between the reference point of decision-making revenue and the expected revenue of decision-making at each stage,the revenue risk of time window could be obtained.On this basis,according to the expectation-risk decision criterion,the expected revenue and the revenue risk were combined to get the comprehensive revenue value of the decision at each time point,so as to support the optimal decision-making.Taking the vehicle-cargo matching decision-making problem as an example,the decision-making analysis and comparison proved that the decision-making model could be effectively applied to such problems and achieve better decision-making.

Key words: decision support model, matching decision, decision time window, resource distribution, decision time risk, risk calculation