关键词: 不确定条件, 航空发动机, 大修周期, 预测

Abstract: In view of the difficult to predict the aero engines overhaul makespan caused by uncertain factors such as form of damage,degree of damage and maintenance errors,a prediction method compromised Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) and Monte Carlo simulation was proposed to predict the overhaul makespan of aero engines.The uncertainty of aero engines overhaul makespan was described,then the process flow model of aero engines overhaul was analyzed,and the probability distribution of overhaul process time was established based on logical relation of overhaul procedure.Furthermore,the prediction method solution for the overhaul makespan prediction was put forward.The proposed method was applied to the overhaul makespan analysis of a certain aero engine,which provided an important basis for the control and optimization of aero engines overhaul schedule,and verified the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Key words: uncertainty, aero engine, overhaul makespan, prediction