关键词: 变型设计, 产品开发网络, 小世界网络模型, 设计变更传播, 风险预测

Abstract: In variant design process,design change propagation avalanche effect can bring over-consumption of design resources,which make the design change propagation risk predication become one of key issues to be solved in variant design.For this problem,a prediction method of design change propagation risk based on small-world network was proposed.In this method,the influence of product development network's inherent characteristics on the control of design change propagation risk was discussed,the design change propagation,design node dependency and design change propagation intensity in product development network were analyzed,and then the maximum risk optimization mechanism of design change propagation was elaborated.An example was given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method,and the results showed that this method could effectively predict the fragile link of design change propagation and improve the efficiency of variant design.

Key words: variant design, product development network, small world network model, design change propagation, risk predication