关键词: 失效模式, 可靠性评估, 贝叶斯模型平均, 复杂系统

Abstract: To evaluate operational reliability of complex systems accurately,a operational reliability evaluation method by considering multi-failure modes was proposed for failure law and characteristics.The monitoring information was utilized and fused by Bayesian Linear model for degradation level evaluation,and the degradation reliability evaluation model was built based on Gamma random process.Aiming at the features of small sample of sudden failure,a reliability evaluation model based on Bayesian method was built with Weibull method.Based on integrated degradation failure with sudden failure,an operational reliability evaluation model of Bayesian model averaging was proposed.Markov chain Monte-Carlo method was used for solving operational reliability model.An aircraft engines was taken as the example to demonstrate the application process and the effectiveness of proposed method.

Key words: failure modes, reliability evaluation, Bayesian model averaging, complex system