关键词: 有替换定时截尾, 随机截尾, 生存分析, 极大似然法, 平均无故障工作时间, 数控机床, 可靠性评估

Abstract: To contrast survival analysis with maximum likelihood in reliability estimation,and to choose better estimation method in timing censored test with replacement,the reliability estimation method based on survival analysis and maximum likelihood was studied.Because timing censored test with replacement had been considered to be most appropriate for reliability estimation of numerical control machine tool,the relationship between the model of randomly censored and timing censored test with replacement was deduced.With Monte Carlo method,the conclusion that maximum likelihood was better than survival analysis during common test time (the test time was 1.4～2.5 times that of mean time between failures) was obtained,and the relationship between the censored test time and confidence probability of timing censored test with replacement was calculated.

Key words: timing censored test with replacement, randomly censored, survival analysis, maximum likelihood, mean time between failures, numerical control machine tool, reliability estimation