Abstract: To study the decisions on pricing and ordering of dual-supply chain under production cost disruption and risk averse,the models of supply chain were developed by Stackelberg game and the cases of whether production cost disruptions or not in the centralized and decentralized supply chain were compared,then the optimal decisions were obtained.The results showed that：1)the retail price and direct selling price in the centralized supply chain had a certain degree of robustness under production cost disruption and decreased as risk averse increased;the ordering quantities also had a certain degree of robustness under production cost disruption and increased as risk averse increased.2) The retail price,direct selling price,wholesale price and ordering quantities in the decentralized supply chain had a certain degree of robustness under production cost disruption and were influenced differently by risk averse;the retail price,direct selling price and wholesale price decreased as risk averse increased but the ordering quantities increased as risk averse increased.3) The retail price and direct selling price in the centralized supply chain were both less than the ones in the decentralized supply chain,regardless of whether there was production cost disruptions or not,while the ordering quantities were greater than the ones in the decentralized supply chain.

Key words: Stackelberg game, mean-variance, risk-averse, production cost disruption, dual-supply chain, pricing decisions

摘要： 为了探究生产成本扰动和风险规避对双渠道供应链决策的影响,考虑生产成本扰动和风险规避双因素,利用Stackelberg博弈对双渠道供应链定价和订购决策进行分析,在比较生产成本扰动和无生产成本扰动的基础上得到了最优定价决策。研究发现,集中供应链的零售价格和直销价格在生产成本扰动下具有一定的稳健性,其随风险规避程度的增大而减小;订购量在生产成本扰动下也具有一定的稳健性,其随风险规避的增加而增加。分散供应链中的零售价、直销价、批发价和订购量都具有一定的稳健性,因受风险规避的影响而不同,零售价、直销价格和批发价随风险规避的增大而减小,订购量则反之。无论是否出现生产成本波动,集中供应链的零售价和直销价均小于分散供应链,而订购量则相反。

关键词: Stackelberg博弈, 均值&mdash, 方差, 风险规避, 生产成本扰动, 双渠道供应链, 定价决策