Abstract: The current situation of industrial robots is characterized by long service life,high reliability,high cost,short time to market and the widespread use of accelerated degradation tests with small sample sizes to infer product reliability.In response to this scenario,a reliability assessment method that integrated Gamma process and Gibbs sampling was proposed.A degradation model of two-stage Gamma process was proposed to describe the degradation of industrial robots at different stages of life cycle.Gibbs sampling was used to estimate the parameters of the model,and the estimated results were utilized for reliability assessment.A two-stage degradation model for the large arm joint of industrial robot was established and the reliability assessment was performed.The assessment result was consistent with actual data,which proved the applicability of the proposed model and method.

Key words: Gamma process, reliability assessment, Gibbs sampling, performance degradation

摘要： 针对工业机器人长寿命、高可靠、成本高、上市时间短、常采用小子样加速退化试验推断产品可靠性的现状,提出一种结合Gamma过程和Gibbs抽样的可靠性评估方法。首先,提出两阶段Gamma过程的退化模型,用于描述工业机器人不同阶段的退化情况;其次,采用Gibbs抽样估计模型的参数并利用估计的结果进行可靠性评估;最后对工业机器人大臂关节建立两阶段退化模型并进行可靠性评估。评估结果与实际数据相符,证明了模型与方法可用于工业机器人可靠性评估。

关键词: Gamma过程, 可靠性评估, Gibbs抽样, 性能退化