Abstract: According to the performance polymorphism of the repairable multi-state system,a multi-state reliability modeling method in a maintenance cycle based on the performance degradation was proposed by using the analysis method from machine to system.A Markov model of machine performance degradation was established,and the different ways of machine status from high-performance to low-performance was analyzed.Meanwhile,the functional relationship between state probability and decline ways was obtained.The state probability and Universal Generating Function (UGF) were combined to analyze the states during the performance degradation process.According to the different factors affecting system performance recession,the manufacturing system was divided into different levels.Combined with fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,the relationship between the subsystems and system was analyzed and the generating functions were obtained.Furthermore,the reliability analysis method of performance degradation due to the aging was derived.A case was taken as an example to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model and the analysis method.

Key words: performance degradation, multi-state system, reliability analysis, machine tools

摘要： 针对可修制造系统在维修过程中呈现出的性能多态性,采用从机床到系统的分析方法,提出了机床在一个维修周期内基于性能衰退过程的多状态可靠性建模方法,建立了机床状态衰退过程的Markov模型,分析了机床从高性能状态到低性能状态衰退的不同途径,得出机床处于各状态的概率与衰退途径之间的函数关系。采用状态概率与通用发生函数相结合的方法,对机床性能衰退过程进行了状态分析,根据影响系统性能衰退的不同因素对制造系统进行层级划分,结合模糊层次分析法分析了子系统与系统性能状态之间的关系,得到子系统及系统的发生函数,探讨了系统因老化导致性能衰退过程的可靠度分析方法。结合实例分析,验证了所建模型的合理性和分析方法的有效性。

关键词: 性能衰退, 多态系统, 可靠性分析, 机床