Abstract: The field lifetime of Photovoltaic (PV) module has volatility and uncertainty due to the influence of stochastic factors.The nonlinear Gamma process was applied to evaluate the field lifetime of PV module according to the nonlinear characteristics of the output power degradation process with service time.The difference in output power degradation process between different PV module was called random effect,which caused by the variation of factors affecting the manufacturing quality and the maintenance quality during the service period.The parameter in evaluation model was randomized to describe this phenomenon.The Expectation-maximum algorithm was used to solve the parameters.The proposed model and method were applied to evaluate the field lifetime of PV modules,and the applicability and effectiveness were verified.The application of the research results could provide a more targeted field life information for the maintenance and renewal making-decision of PV modules in the service period.

Key words: photovoltaic module, field lifetime, lifetime evaluation, nonlinear Gamma process, random effect

摘要： 受性能退化随机性因素的影响,光伏组件的现场寿命存在着波动性和不确定性。根据光伏组件输出功率随服役时间的退化过程所具有的非线性特征,采用非线性伽马过程对其总体现场寿命进行评估;对因受制造过程影响因素的变异、使用过程中维护维修质量的差异性等因素的综合影响,所导致的光伏组件个体之间在输出功率退化过程存在的差异性即随机效应,则通过评估模型中参数的随机变量化来表征,并用最大期望算法对模型参数进行求解;最后,将所提出模型应用于光伏组件的现场寿命评估,评估结果验证了模型的适用性和有效性。研究成果的应用可为光伏组件使用过程中的维修更新提供更具针对性的决策依据。

关键词: 光伏组件, 现场寿命, 寿命评估, 非线性伽马过程, 随机效应