Abstract: The existing Markov chain degradation modeling methods for wind turbines neglect the impact of external shocks.Therefore,a State Transition Matrix considering Cumulative Shock Damage(CSD-STM)was designed.On this basis,a Markov chain degradation model based on CSD-STM for wind turbines was studied,and the reliability model was also defined.At the same time,a preventive maintenance strategy based on state probability was proposed,which provided the theoretical support for reliability evaluation and preventive maintenance decision-making.Finally,the wind turbine generator was taken as an example to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Key words: random shocks, Markov chain, reliability, preventive maintenance

摘要： 针对现有的风电机马尔可夫链退化建模方法忽视了外部冲击的影响,设计了一类考虑累积冲击损伤的状态概率转移矩阵(CSD-STM),在此基础上研究了基于CSD-STM的风电机马尔可夫链退化建模方法,并定义了可靠度模型,同时提出基于收益最大化的预防维护策略,为风电机的可靠度评估与预防维护决策提供了理论支撑。最后通过风电发电机案例分析验证了所提模型与方法的有效性。

关键词: 外部冲击, 马尔可夫链, 可靠性, 预防维护