Abstract: COVID-19 has an impact on the global supply chain,which is mainly manifested in the simultaneous interruption of production capacity and demand.To explore the impact of government subsidy strategies on recovery in the context of supply chain interruption,the low-demand products during the epidemic were used as the research object,and the government's choice of subsidies for production capacity and demand interruption as a recovery strategy.The cumulative profit of supply chain members was taken as the recovery index,and system dynamics was used to construct the "manufacturer-distribution center" secondary supply chain.The changes in cumulative profits for different subsidy options were simulate under partial and complete interruption scenarios.The simulation results showed that the choice of government subsidy strategies under different interruption scenarios had different effects on the supply chain recovery effect.In the scenario of partial demand interruption,government subsidies for manufacturers with interrupted production capacity would make the supply chain recovery better.In the scenario of complete demand interruption,government subsidies for distribution centers with interrupted demand would make the supply chain recovery better.

Key words: supply chain recovery, government subsidy, system dynamics, epidemic

摘要： 新冠疫情对全球供应链产生了深远影响,主要表现在产能和需求的同时中断。为探究供应链中断情境下政府补贴策略对供应链恢复的影响,以疫情期间低需求产品作为研究对象,将政府对产能和需求中断的补贴选择作为恢复策略的切入点,以供应链成员的累计利润作为恢复指标,运用系统动力学构建“制造商—配送中心”二级供应链,并仿真模拟部分中断和完全中断情境下不同补贴选择的累计利润变化。仿真结果表明,不同中断情境下政府补贴策略的选择对供应链恢复效果存在差异性,在需求部分中断情境下,政府补贴产能中断的制造商将使供应链恢复效果更好,在需求完全中断情境下,政府补贴需求中断的配送中心将使供应链恢复效果更好。

关键词: 供应链恢复, 政府补贴, 系统动力学, 疫情