Abstract: To improve the consumption loyalty and the customer satisfaction of Chinese domestic vehicle products,the generation mechanism of customer complaints and the diffusion process of negative Word-of-Mouth (WOM) were studied from micro perspective for providing guidance on the Continuous Quality Improvement (CQIP) for Chinese domestic automobile industry.According to the generation process of negative WOM,the participants of vehicle consumers were divided into different states,and Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) epidemic model was employed to describe the propagation process of customer complaints.Considering the heterogeneity of the individuals,the Heterogeneous Cellular Automata (HCA) model was constructed to reflect the negative word-of-mouth diffusion dynamically.The discrete dynamic simulation method was simulated to study the negative WOM diffusion affected by the following four indicators: the proportion of initial customer complaints,the quality of product,the level of after-sales service and the distribution pattern of complainer.The simulation result showed that the diffusion for customer complaint of vehicle products was obvious.The product quality and the after-sales service could assist to reduce the spread of negative WOM,but the improvement of customer satisfaction was limited by the enhancement of after-sales service.Meanwhile,the proportion of initial complaints and the distribution of complainers had a significant influence on negative WOM expansion.To improve the customer satisfaction and loyalty of Chinese domestic automobile products,simulation results suggested that the vehicle plant should carry out preventive quality management and focus on the upstream links of vehicle supply chain by eliminating quality defects.

Key words: susceptible infected recovered epidemic model, heterogeneous cellular automata, negative word-of-mouth, Chinese domestic automobile, diffusion research

摘要： 为提高国产汽车消费忠诚度,改善客户关系,从微观视角研究了顾客抱怨的产生和负面口碑的扩散过程及规律,指导自主品牌整车企业实施持续改进。首先,依据负面口碑形成过程,将汽车消费生态圈参与个体划分为不同状态,借鉴SIR疫病模型,刻画负面口碑传播过程。其次,考虑到抱怨个体的异质性,利用异质元胞自动机建模方法,构建负面口碑传播的动力学模型。最后,借助离散动力学仿真,研究初始抱怨比例、产品质量水平、售后服务水平和抱怨者分布模式等对负面口碑扩散的影响。结果表明,负面口碑的扩散效应明显,产品质量和售后服务作为顾客抱怨的补偿,能够缓解负面口碑的扩散效应;但依靠售后服务水平的提升改善顾客抱怨情况具有局限性;同时,初始抱怨比例和抱怨者分布显著影响负面口碑扩散效果。研究结果建议整车企业应进行预防性质量管理,以围堵供应链上游环节的质量问题。

关键词: SIR疫病传播模型, 异质元胞自动机, 负面口碑, 自主品牌汽车, 扩散研究