Abstract: To solve the problems such as fuzzy and uncertain evaluation information,insufficient consideration of experts and risk factors and rough risk ranking in the practical application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA),a risk evaluation method based on 2-dimensionbinary 2-tuple linguistic and prospect theory was proposed,which used 2-dimensionbinary 2-tuple to represent the fuzziness and uncertainty of expert evaluation information.To improve the accuracy of weight calculation,the subjective and objective weights of experts were obtained by experts' own evaluation and the minimum entropy method,and the weight of risk factors was calculated by information entropy on this basis.Considering the psychological characteristics of the experts in decision-making,the foreground value function was used to describe the decision-making behavior of the experts,and the comprehensive foreground value of each fault mode was calculated.Furthermore,the integrated foreground value was used to rank the risk of reflow soldering fault mode of the integrated circuit board.The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method was verified by comparative analysis.

Key words: failure mode and effects analysis, 2-dimension 2-tuple linguistic, entropy method, prospect theory

摘要： 针对故障模式及影响分析(FMEA)在实际运用过程中存在评估信息模糊不确定、专家和风险因子权重考虑不足以及风险排序粗糙的问题,提出一种基于二维二元语义和前景理论的风险评估方法。该方法采用二维二元语义来表征专家评价信息的模糊性和不确定性;为提高权重计算的准确性,通过专家自身评判和最小熵值法来获取专家的主客观权重,并在此基础上利用信息熵来计算风险因子的权重;考虑到专家在决策时的心理特征,用前景价值函数来刻画专家的决策行为,并以此计算各故障模式的综合前景值,进而利用综合前景值对集成电路板的回流焊接的故障模式进行风险排序。通过对比分析验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。

关键词: 故障模式及影响分析, 二维二元语义, 熵值法, 前景理论