Abstract: Assessing cascade hydropower project planning alternatives under a fuzzy-random environment is an important part of a hydropower development management system.Facing on the uncertainty and irrationality of an expert team in a process of assessing the cascade hydropower project planning alternatives,an approach of selecting fuzzy-random cascade hydropower project planning alternatives was proposed considering the irrationality of experts.By using triangular fuzzy random variables and gray relational depth coefficient,a maximum entropy model corresponding to an expert was establish to obtain the weight of each evaluation index corresponding to the expert.A principle of minimizing the deviations a nonlinear programming model was established to estimate the weights of the experts of assessing the cascade hydropower project planning alternatives.A cumulative prospect theory was used to obtain the comprehensive prospects of planning alternatives,and then the optimal planning alternative was determined.The case study proved the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Key words: watershed cascade hydropower development, cumulative prospect theory, fuzzy-random multi-attribute group decision, alternative assessment

摘要： 模糊随机环境下流域梯级水电开发项目的评估是水电开发管理中的一个重要环节。针对流域梯级水电开发风险评估过程中专家评估的非理性特征和模糊随机性,提出模糊随机环境下考虑专家非理性行为的流域梯级水电开发项目评估方法：首先,利用三角模糊随机变量和灰色关联深度系数建立一个相应于任意一个专家的极大熵模型,以获得该专家的各个评估指标权重;其次,根据偏差的最小化原理建立一个非线性规划模型,以估计不同专家对流域梯形水电开发备选方案评估的权重;最后,利用累积前景理论获取各个备选方案的综合前景效用值,以确定最优的备选方案。通过实例证明了所提方法的可行性和有效性。

关键词: 流域梯级水电开发, 累积前景理论, 模糊随机多属性群决策, 方案评估