Abstract: Based on the rational man hypotheses of decision maker in newsvendor problem,the anchoring psychology was introduced to research the retailer's behavior in ordering problem.A new mathematical order model considered the anchoring and insufficient adjustment bias of retailer was proposed.The influence of anchoring psychology on retailer's profit was investigated,and the result showed that the retailer's profit was negatively correlated with anchoring psychology.The sensitivity analysis indicated that the level of anchoring had a major impact on order quantity and profit.The rationality of considering anchoring psychology in newsvendor problem was demonstrated.

Key words: newsvendor model, anchoring, pull-to-center, bias, retailer, order problem

摘要： 在传统报童模型理性人假设的基础上,引入锚定心理研究零售商的订货问题。建立了考虑零售商锚定不充分调整偏差的新的订购模型,通过模型分析发现零售商受锚定心理影响,其订货行为出现“偏向均值”现象。分析了锚定心理对零售商实际利润的影响,发现锚定心理水平越严重,零售商的实际利润越偏离最大期望利润。通过灵敏度分析探讨了零售商锚定心理水平对于零售商实际订货量以及实际利润的影响程度,证明了在分析零售商库存行为时考虑锚定心理的合理性。

关键词: 报童模型, 锚定效应, 偏向均值, 偏差, 零售商, 订货问题