Abstract: It was significant for optimizing the limited resources and promoting success rate of product development by reviewing product development projects systematically and periodically.According to the periodical and risky features of product development projects,a termination decision approach based on cumulative prospect theory was proposed.The decision matrix was constructed with the evaluation index of sample projects and projects to be identified.The positive and negative ideal solutions of the decision matrix were utilized as reference schemes to calculate the positive and negative prospect value matrix.An optimization model with the objective of maximum deviation of comprehension prospect value in different  projects was constructed.By solving the model,the optimum weight vector was obtained.With the optimum weight vector,each project's comprehension prospect value was calculated and the unknown type of projects was determined according to their corresponding intervals of comprehension prospect value.The feasibility and effectiveness of proposed model were testified by an instance project from a manufacturing enterprise.

Key words: product development, termination decision, cumulative prospect theory, optimization model, decision matrix

摘要： 为了有助于系统性、阶段性地审查产品开发项目,识别缺乏良好前景的项目并加以中止,以整合优化有限资源、提高企业产品开发的成功率,根据产品开发项目阶段性、风险性的特点,提出基于累积前景理论的项目中止决策方法。使用一定量样本项目与待判项目的指标评价值组成决策矩阵,将决策矩阵的正、负理想解作为参考点,依据前景理论中的前景价值函数计算正、负前景矩阵;以样本项目中不同类别项目的综合前景值离差最大化为目标构建最优化模型,求解模型获得最优权重向量;通过权重向量计算各项目的综合前景值,按照待判项目综合前景值的对应区间确定所属类型,作出继续执行、暂缓执行或中止的决策。以某制造企业的开发项目为例进行决策分析,验证了所提方法的可行性和有效性。

关键词: 产品开发, 中止决策, 累积前景理论, 优化模型, 决策矩阵