关键词: 可信性理论, 模糊需求, 风险规避, 条件风险价值, 供应链, 定价策略, 协调机制

Abstract: To research the pricing strategy and coordination mechanism of the supply chain with risk aversion members under fuzzy demand,the fuzzy product demand was adopted to describe the uncertain demand of market.A two-stage supply chain decision model was constructed in the cases of risk averse,and the explicit solutions to the optimal decision were derived.A revenue sharing contract based on Shapley value was designed to coordinate the supply chain.The results showed that when the fuzzy uncertainty of market demand changed and in a higher risk aversion  for manufacturer and the retailer,the optimal price would be decreased as the increasing of decreased market demand possibility,but would be unchanged as the increasing of increased market demand possibility.The opportunities to raise prices to obtain high returns would be lost under the condition of increased market demand possibility.The risk-averse decision maker would choose the risk-averse opponent as partners.The revenue sharing contract based on Shapley value could coordinate the supply chain system perfectly.

Key words: credibility theory, fuzzy demand, risk-aversion, conditional value at risk, supply chains, pricing strategy, coordination mechanism