关键词: Stackelberg博弈, 均值&mdash, 方差, 风险规避, 生产成本扰动, 双渠道供应链, 定价决策

Abstract: To study the decisions on pricing and ordering of dual-supply chain under production cost disruption and risk averse,the models of supply chain were developed by Stackelberg game and the cases of whether production cost disruptions or not in the centralized and decentralized supply chain were compared,then the optimal decisions were obtained.The results showed that：1)the retail price and direct selling price in the centralized supply chain had a certain degree of robustness under production cost disruption and decreased as risk averse increased;the ordering quantities also had a certain degree of robustness under production cost disruption and increased as risk averse increased.2) The retail price,direct selling price,wholesale price and ordering quantities in the decentralized supply chain had a certain degree of robustness under production cost disruption and were influenced differently by risk averse;the retail price,direct selling price and wholesale price decreased as risk averse increased but the ordering quantities increased as risk averse increased.3) The retail price and direct selling price in the centralized supply chain were both less than the ones in the decentralized supply chain,regardless of whether there was production cost disruptions or not,while the ordering quantities were greater than the ones in the decentralized supply chain.

Key words: Stackelberg game, mean-variance, risk-averse, production cost disruption, dual-supply chain, pricing decisions