关键词: 敏捷供需链, 风险分析, 不确定性

Abstract: In order to analyze the impacts of uncertainty factors on agile supply chain (ASC), the risk analysis model of ASC based on risk factors was built. The possibility of reconfiguring ASC system and its time response were summarized, then the uncertainty factors were classified into system level, cooperation level and entity level for ease of analysis. To obtain the change of evaluation index of each level as risk analysis result, a new qualitative as well as quantitative risk analysis method aiming at the risk of ASC were provided. By the quantitative model and the quantitative method developed, numerical example shows that the risk analysis results are efficient for decision-making, and the proposed model and method are helpful to the risk management in ASC system.

Key words: agile supply chain, risk analysis, uncertainty