关键词: 闭环供应链, 再制造, 单向替代, 需求预测更新, 收益共享

Abstract: Aiming at the profit distribution research of most closed-loop supply chain only considering the deterministic demand and single-period environment limitations, a decision model of two-period closed-loop supply chain considering demand forecast update and substitution relationship between new products and remanufactured products was studied under stochastic environment. Four optimization models were constructed under two decision strategies (decentralized decision, centralized decision) and two substitution relationships (no substitution, one-way substitution). The algorithms of obtaining optimal wholesale price of manufacturers, optimal remanufacturing level of new product, optimal ordering quantities of retailers and profits for each party in the models were proposed. Moreover, quantitative relationships of the equilibrium solutions under different circumstances were derived. Aiming at the impact of demand correlation coefficient on ordering quantity and system profit, a sensitivity analysis was conducted. The results indicated that under both decision strategies, the expected ordering quantity in the second period with one-way substitution was higher than with no substitution. Both one-way substitution and demand forecast update led to improve system total profits. However, from the perspective of channel members merely the manufacturer's profit increased, the retailer's profit decreased instead. Therefore the manufacturer and the retailer could share the increased profits to raise the retailer's enthusiasm.

Key words: closed-loop supply chains, remanufacturing, one-way substitution, demand forecast updating, revenue sharing