关键词: 含权获得值法, 项目绩效监测, 预测, 仿真, 项目管理

Abstract: Traditional earned value method was a deterministic method, it was not in accordance with uncertainty of large-scale engineering projects. It also conducted performance evaluation from the perspective of overall project. It didn't distinguish different effects from critical activities and non-critical activities. To solve these problems, based on S curves method, a new approach of weight earned value was put forward according to the different weight given by critical level of activties. Performance monitoring was carried out by integrating project performance and critical path performance. According to the performance monitoring result, the cost and time parameters of the activities which were in progress or not started yet were adjusted. Simulation method was used to predict future project performance, the Cost Variation at Completion (CVAC) and the Schedule Variation at Completion (SVAC) were obtained and the forecast of project performance was realized. A case study of a 3-story housing project was provided to demonstrate the application of the proposed method in project management.

Key words: weight earned value method, project performance monitoring, forecasting, simulation, project management