关键词: 研制, 武器装备, 风险评估, 图示评审技术, 仿真模型

Abstract: In order to avoid over-cost and time delay in the weapon system development, the failure probability and multi-branch feedback of the weapon system were brought into the graphical evaluation review technique (GERT) network. A feedback simulation model based on GERT network including multi-branch was established. Through the statistical analysis of simulation outputs, the quantitative indictors of technical risk both at project and subsystem level were defined respectively, such as the percentage of over-cost and time delay, and the variation coefficient of cost and time. Also, the sensitivity analysis of technical risk factors was also performed. The technical risk of a specific weapon system was analyzed by the simulation model in detail, which proved the feasibility and effectiveness of the simulation model.

Key words: development, weapon system, technical assessment, graphical evaluation review technique, simulation model, sensitivity