关键词: 特征, 产品, 成本预测, 映射, 作业成本法, 时间序列分析

Abstract: To study dynamic characteristics and hierarchical relevances of cost impact on variables, a product cost prediction method based on hierarchical and dynamic mapping with a framework of “product feature-process consumption-cost” was presented. Oriented to product family and product series, the associations among variables from different layers (design layer, process implementation layer and resource support layer) were firstly analyzed. And then, the mapping from product feature to the material comsumption and operation consumption was established, and the changes of cost variables were analyzed and predicted with time series analysis method. The dynamic and quantitative relationships among product feature, material cost and product operation cost were established, and the dynamic product cost prediction based on product feature was then realized. Finally, a case study was given on cost prediction of heat exchanger production in a mechanical enterprise to demonstrate the construction process of the prediction model and its application results. Effectiveness of the method was verified.

Key words: feature, product, cost prediction, mapping, activity based costing