关键词: 石化安全设备, 多重定时截尾数据, 蒙特卡洛模拟, 参数估计, 可靠度

Abstract: To address the problem that the lifetime data of petrochemical safety devices belong to the typical multiple timing censored leading to the difficulty of reliability estimate of the devices,a reliability estimation method of Filled Least Squares Method (FLSM) combined with improved Bootstrap method was proposed.A representative Weibull distribution was fitted and a point estimate of the equipment reliability was obtained using the FLSM.The sample size was expanded using the improved Bootstrap method to obtain the confidence lower bound of the reliability.As a result of the Monte Carlo simulation,the proposed FLSM outperformed the traditional method in terms of accuracy and applicability,and had excellent robustness.The application to the emergency de-pressure valves of the hydrocracker,the equipment maintenance time was determined to be 12,929 hours,and the confidence lower bound obtained by the improved Bootstrap method suggested an equipment maintenance time of 6,969 hours to ensure the smooth operation of petrochemical safety equipment.

Key words: petrochemical safety devices, multiple timing censored data, Monte Carlo simulation, parameter estimation, reliability