关键词: 物流服务供应链, 价格风险, 组合采购决策, 条件风险值, 灵敏度分析

Abstract: Based on supply price risk of external capacity of multi-layer logistics service supply chain,the option contract was introduced to optimize decision-making of risk-averse logistics service integrator.The hybrid procurement strategy of integrated option and spot market was constructed by considering price risk based on option contract.Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) was used to measure optimal profit expectation of risk-averse logistics service integrator,and optimal order quantity was obtained.By comparing single option contracts,single spot market and other hybrid procurement models,the different profits of integrator were analyzed.The case study and sensitivity analysis were conducted to validate superiority of purchasing mechanism of integration option and spot market.The results showed that purchasing decision combined with spot market and option contract could achieve higher returns and transfer price risk,which was an effective strategy to deal with supply price fluctuation risk.

Key words: logistics service supply chain, price risk, combined purchasing decision, conditional value-at-risk, sensitivity analysis