关键词: 需求预测, 信息共享, 信任, 价格折扣, 供应链

Abstract: To solve the problem of efficient sharing of demand forecast information among upstream and downstream enterprises in the supply chain,Stackelberg game was used to establish coordination models based on trust and price-discount in single-cycle and multi-cycle environments respectively in a supply chain composed of a manufacturer and a retailer.The models assumed that if the retailer forecasted the market demand and reported it to the manufacturer before the sales season,the manufacturer could determine his own capacity accordingly.When the sales season came,the retailer placed formal orders.The manufacturer determined the trust degree in the retailer by comparing the difference between predicted and real value of demand mean,thereby determining the wholesale price discount to the retailer.The algorithms of single-period and multi-period models were given respectively,and the numerical examples were analyzed.The results showed that when the upper limit of discount ratio was determined the retailer had the optimal reporting value.If the price discount ratio was appropriate,the supply chain members could achieve the performance better than sharing the real forecast information.

Key words: demand forecast, information sharing, trust, price discount, supply chains