关键词: 系统动力学, 老化链, 劳动密集型产业, 生产效率, 雇佣延迟, 成长延迟

Abstract: To solve the problem that the decline of staff efficiency and maximum capacity due to high staff floating rate in labor intensive enterprises,a system dynamics model with two aging chains was established by using system dynamics theory,which took a shoe enterprise as a study object.The new staffs were divided into two categories according to the level of skills in this model,and the influence of the changes in staff growth,recruiting delay and promoting delay on staff efficiency and capacity was analyzed with model simulation.The results showed that staff efficiency and maximum capacity were improved by reducing the promoting delay of new staff when the staffs kept growing.Thus two policies were proposed: the promoting delay was by using experienced staff to guided new staff in policy 1;the promoting delay was shortened by guiding new staffs to self-study in policy 2.Through simulating the effects of two policies,the effectiveness and difference were analyzed,and the best use scenarios were determined.The policies were proved to be effective and practical through the implementation in the case of enterprise.

Key words: system dynamics, aging chain, labor intensive enterprises, staff efficiency, recruiting delay, promoting delay