关键词: 云制造, 不完全信息博弈, 精炼贝叶斯纳什均衡, 信任形成机制

Abstract: To analyze the trust formation mechanism and understand the key conditions for realization mutual trust and win-win cooperation in cloud manufacturing environment,a trust game model based on incomplete information game theory was put forward.A two-side dynamic game model was built from the perspective of services demanders'short-term returns,and two possible game equilibriums and the corresponding conditions were analyzed.Meanwhile,a tri-game model was built from the perspective of services providers'long-term returns,and the possibilities of game equilibriums were discussed.An equilibrium in mixed perspective was obtained through a comprehensive analysis.The existence of game equilibriums was verified with Monte Carlo simulation,and the influence of different factors on trust game was analyzed.The simulation results showed that the preferences of service demanders could promote the formation of trust between demanders and providers which met their preferences and made the whole number of trade show multi-peak distribution,and the increase of disguise cost and punishment rate of dishonesty could promote the formation of the trust.

Key words: cloud manufacturing, incomplete information game, perfect Bayesian Nash equilibrium, trust formation mechanism