关键词: 短生命周期产品, 产品相似度, BASS模型, 需求预测

Abstract: Aiming at the problem that low forecasting accuracy leaded by historical data deficiency and demand factors consideration insufficiency in demand forecasting of short life cycle products,an improved BASS model for demand forecasting of short life cycle products was proposed.The product similarity measure method based on importance of features was put forward,and the weight distribution of products similar features was achieved through the application of fuzzy clustering-rough sets.The similarity of product was measured by the system similarity measure method,which provided evidences for the acquisition and consolidation of similar products'historical sales data and the determination of similar products weights.By considering the influence of consumer preferences and seasonal factors on demand forecasting,the BASS model was improved,and a demand forecasting model for short life cycle products based on improved BASS model was proposed.With an example of demand for a mobile phone forecasting,the scientificity and validity of proposed method was verified.

Key words: short life cycle products, product similarity, BASS model, demand forecasting