关键词: 最小维修, 少样本数据, 贝叶斯可靠性, 数控机床, 马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛法

Abstract: To reduce the uncertainty of Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP) model and improve the assessment accuracy of NC machine tools,Bayesian reliability analysis results which included point and interval estimations of model parameters and reliability indices were given with Markov chain Monte Carlo method.Two real engineering examples were presented based on the maintenance experiences of field experts,the reliability of NC machine tools with increasing and decreasing failure intensity in minimal repair were analyzed respectively.The results showed that the length of interval estimate by using Bayesian method was narrower than that obtained by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE),and reliability analysis results of the former was more close to the actual cases.

Key words: minimal repair, small-sample data, Bayesian reliability, numerical control machine tool, Markov chain Monte Carlo