关键词: 广义信度马尔科夫模型, 辨识框架, 顾客需求, 动态分析, 产品开发

Abstract: To utilize the importance degree information of Customer Requirements(CRs) in Product Planning House Of Quality(PPHOQ) fully and effectively,and to get-depth understanding of CRs-dynamic trend for product developers to grasp the direction and target of product development under a dynamic and uncertain environment,a method of CRs dynamic analysis based on generalized belief Markov model was proposed.The feasibility of CRs dynamic change describing by Markov chain and its non-aftereffect property in PPHOQ was analyzed,and a Generalized Evidence Theory (GET) was introduced to solve the prediction jump problem leaded by slight variation of state value in the classical Markov chain model.By considering the inapplicability of the traditional belief Markov model under the incomplete discernment framework,a generalized belief Markov model was constructed based on open world.Through a case of electrostatic precipitator products manufactured by a machinery enterprise and the comparisons with the existed methods,the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach was illustrated.

Key words: generalized belief Markov model, discernment framework, customer requirement, dynamic analysis, product development