Abstract: The current researches of failure mode risk assessment mainly focus on providing more complex assessment models,but they suffer from the lack of consideration on engineering application of assessment models and research on the property and extent of each assessment parameter’s impact on the assessment results.A fuzzy confidence interval evaluation model for failure mode risk factors was constructed,the synthesis of the risk factor evaluation results and the scalar quantitative measurement of the evaluation results were realized by transforming the fuzzy confidence interval numbers into triangular fuzzy numbers.On this basis,the probability distribution models of each evaluation parameter in the risk factor evaluation model were given.A global sensitivity analysis method based on Gaussian radial basis function was used to confirm the Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA),which guided and formulated more refined evaluation parameter selection criteria.The FMEA application of a certain type of aircraft engine’s installation process showed that the proposed model and the evaluation parameter selection criteria based on the sensitivity analysis results could not only enable the assessment experts to give the assessment results of risk factors more objectively and finely,but meet the application requirements of industry standards as well,and significantly improve the discrimination of the failure mode risk impact by assessment results.

Key words: failure mode and effects analysis, failure mode, fuzzy risk evaluation, parameter sensitivity analysis, Gaussian radial basis function, engine installation

摘要： 目前失效模式风险评估研究主要集中在给出更为复杂的评估模型,而缺乏对评估模型的工程应用考虑和各评估参数对评估结果影响性质和影响程度的研究。本文首先研究构建失效模式风险因子的模糊置信区间评估模型,通过将模糊置信区间数转化为三角模糊数,实现风险因子评估结果的综合及评估结果的标量度量;以此为基础分析给出风险因子评估模型中各评估参数的概率分布模型,再应用基于高斯径向基函数的全局灵敏度分析方法,确定各评估参数对评估结果的影响性质和影响程度,据此指导制定更为精细的评估参数取值准则。某型飞机发动机安装工艺过程的失效模式及影响分析(FMEA)应用研究结果表明,所给出的模型和基于灵敏度分析结果制定的评估参数取值准则可使评估专家更为客观精细地给出风险因子的评估意见,得到满足工业标准要求的风险评估结果,并显著提升评估结果对失效模式风险的区分度。

关键词: 失效模式及影响分析, 失效模式, 模糊风险评估, 参数灵敏度分析, 高斯径向基函数, 发动机安装